Political Regimes and the Shape of Nationalism

A conjoint experiment on the content of national identity in Mainland China and Taiwan

Steven Denney · Leiden University

H. Christoph Steinhardt · University of Vienna

American Political Science Association Annual Meeting · Boston · September 2026
Shaping National Identity and the Good Citizen · Division 63

Do democracies and autocracies define the nation differently?

Situating the question

Cross-national correlations cannot separate regime from culture.

National identity boundaries are less exclusionary in democracies

Ancestry and birthplace are required 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 r = -0.72 Philippines South Korea Russia Taiwan United States Sweden Respect for institutions is required 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 r = +0.46 Taiwan Philippines Russia Slovakia Liberal democracy index (V-Dem, 2023)

ISSP 2023, 29 countries, against the V-Dem liberal democracy index. OLS line with 95% band. Taiwan in blue. Mainland China is not in the ISSP.

A descriptive comparison of two regimes

What we know
Institutions and the preferences that sustain them tend to align.
What we ask
How do the criteria of belonging differ between (and within) Sinosphere countries?
Design
Preregistered conjoint
Cases
2
Respondents
5,028

Fielded 2025 to 2026 in quota-matched online panels.

Problems with observational data on national identity

Rarely used for national belonging and not before across regimes.

Common inheritance, one juncture, two paths

Mainland China n = 2,528

One-party state throughout. Patriotic education from 1994 tied the nation to the Party. Official narratives have grown more Han-centred.

Taiwan n = 2,500

Democratic since 1996. One-party rule until 1987. The 1997 curriculum reform shifted identification toward the island.

1949 two one-party states, one ethnic-nationalist narrative 1987 martial law lifted in Taiwan 1989 legitimacy crisis 1994 patriotic education campaign 2013 campaign intensified 2025–26 survey 1996 first direct presidential election · 1997 curriculum reform 2026 survey

Zhao 1998; Wang 2012; Cantoni et al. 2017 · Chu & Lin 2001; Wang & Liu 2004; Chen et al. 2023 · Alesina & Fuchs-Schündeln 2007; Shi 2015

A choice-based conjoint in both societies

  • Ethnicity6
  • Civic involvement3
  • Political views4
  • Patriotism3
  • Place of birth6
  • Legal status3
  • Time in country4
  • Mandarin3
  • Social values3
35levels · 6 tasks each · 5,028 respondents · 30,118 choices

Navy bar marks the four preregistered hypothesis families.

Outcome
Which of these two is the truer guomin?
Estimation
Marginal means against even odds. Respondent-clustered errors. Preregistered on OSF.

Sample task

Which of these two is the truer guomin, the more genuine national?

 Person APerson B
Place of birthOwn countryIndonesia
EthnicityHan ChineseSoutheast Asian
Legal statusPermanent residencePassport
Time in country14 yearsMost of life
MandarinFluentLimited
PatriotismPatriotic, rarely expresses itPatriotic, often expresses it
Political viewsPrefers a strong leaderValues a free press
Social valuesConformistTolerant
Civic involvementAttends government community eventsOrganizes petitions
Person A
Person B

Then a rating from 1 to 7 of each person. Open-ended questions as well.

What we expected

We expected each regime to write its creed into the national ideal.

Ancestry, language and patriotism weigh almost the same.

Mainland China 40% 60% 50% Taiwan 40% 60% 50% Taiwan − Mainland −10pp +10pp 0 ETHNICITY Han Chinese 57% 55% −1.4 Domestic minority 56% 58% +1.6 Non-Han East Asian 48% 47% −0.5 Southeast Asian 48% 49% +1.4 European 47% 46% −0.3 African 45% 45% −0.7 MANDARIN Fluent Mandarin 55% 56% +0.4 Limited Mandarin 50% 51% +1.0 No Mandarin 44% 43% −1.4 PATRIOTISM Patriotic, expresses it openly 55% 55% −0.8 Patriotic, keeps it private 53% 52% −0.6 Feels no patriotism 42% 43% +1.5

Marginal means, bars from even odds, 90% and 95% intervals. The right column is Taiwan minus Mainland China with a 95% interval, pale when it covers zero.

What differs is whether political commitments count.

Political values differ and citizenship is valued differently.

Mainland China 40% 60% 50% Taiwan 40% 60% 50% Taiwan − Mainland −10pp +10pp 0 POLITICAL VIEWS within 2pp of no opinion Prefers elections 53% 58% +4.7 Values a free press 49% 55% +5.3 No political opinion 49% 50% +1.2 Prefers a strong leader 49% 38% −10.9 LEGAL STATUS Holds a passport 52% 58% +6.0 Permanent residence 53% 52% −0.9 Temporary permit 45% 40% −5.0

Marginal means, bars from even odds, 90% and 95% intervals. The right column is Taiwan minus Mainland China with a 95% interval. The grey band bounds the mainland strong-leader and free-press effects within 2pp of no opinion.

Two publics organize belonging around different things.

Taiwan’s largest swings are political views and legal status. The mainland’s are patriotism and ethnicity, with Mandarin close behind.

Mainland ChinaTaiwan 0pp 5pp 10pp 15pp 20pp Political views 5 20 Legal status 8 18 Time in country 9 15 Patriotism 11 14 Ethnicity 12 13 Mandarin ability 11 13 Place of birth 11 13 Social values 3 6 Civic involvement 2 3 Best level minus worst level, percentage points

Marginal means. Exploratory. Attributes with more levels have more room to swing.

The shared ethnic core is moving apart

Han ancestry 40% 50% 60% 54% 58% 59% 59% 56% 54% Pre-campaign pre-1994 Authoritarian pre-1987 Patriotic education 1994–2012 Transition 1987–1997 Xi era 2013 on Democratic 1998 on African ancestry 48% 44% 44% 40% 46% 46% Born across the Strait 51% 56% 55% 50% 47% 45% Mainland ChinaTaiwan

Cohorts by the regime in place at about age 18, named as in the paper. Exploratory, FDR corrected, 90% and 95% intervals.

Two publics with one inheritance differ on the political boundary and are moving apart on the ethnic one.

Steven Denney · Leiden University · s.c.denney@hum.leidenuniv.nl
H. Christoph Steinhardt · University of Vienna
scdenney.github.io/assets/slides/
political-regimes-nationalism

Civic participation effects are small.

Mainland China 40% 60% 50% Taiwan 40% 60% 50% Taiwan − Mainland −10pp +10pp 0 CIVIC INVOLVEMENT Organizes petitions 48% 51% +2.7 Attends government events 51% 50% −1.7 Stays home 50% 49% −0.9

Marginal means, bars from even odds, 90% and 95% intervals. The right column is Taiwan minus Mainland China. Every level is within 2pp of even odds. Petitions help in Taiwan and clear the correction. The mainland effects are signed as expected and do not.

Robustness

Two tests for a cohort explanation

Mainland China -6pp -3pp 0pp +3pp +6pp -0.2 0 +0.2 +0.4 College educated Urban resident Worries about separatism Worries about foreign influence Trusts other-province people Holds authoritarian values Taiwan -6pp -3pp 0pp +3pp +6pp -0.2 0 +0.2 +0.4 Identifies as Taiwanese only Pan-Green partisan Mainlander father x: effect of the trait on choosing a Han profile · y: correlation of the trait with younger cohorts

A trait explains a cohort change only if it moves the preference and is more common among the young. Exploratory. Subgroup differences in marginal means for the Han level, respondent-clustered. Solid points survive a false-discovery correction. Taiwan has two such traits. The mainland has none we measure.

Concealment cannot be ruled out. Four things weigh against it.

What the contested levels said

Level descriptions as documented in the supplementary information (coding appendix). Slide labels are shortened.

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